Uneven coal transportation volume, uneven heating and cooling on the Daqin line, "not enough to eat"

Coal prices are hovering at a low level, and the coal market is experiencing a lack of supply and demand. The side effects of its sustained downturn have finally extended to railway transportation.

The National Development and Reform Commission recently disclosed that in June, the national railway coal shipment volume was 140 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. From January to June, a total of 910 million tons of coal were shipped, a decrease of 11.2%. From January to June, the national coal production was 1.63 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%.

"On the one hand, the government has successively introduced policies and measures to resolve coal overcapacity, especially the closure of many illegal coal mines, which directly affects raw coal production. On the other hand, the decrease in raw coal production is related to the decrease in market demand. In addition, the decrease in raw coal consumption in thermal power generation and coking production is also the main reason for the decrease in coal production in the first half of the year," said Xing Yan from the Raw Materials Industry Research Institute of CCID Research Institute.

While production has significantly decreased, coal mining enterprises are paying more attention to logistics costs, and the comprehensive logistics costs determine customers' choice of transportation channels. In the second half of last year, after the opening of the Zhunchi Line, coal from western Inner Mongolia was launched through the "Zhunchi Line Shuohuang Line Huanghua Port" channel, with a shipping cost of 15-17 yuan/ton lower than that from the "Dazhun Line Daqin Line Qinhuangdao Port" channel. Due to factors such as short railway transportation distance and low freight rates, many high-quality coal from western Inner Mongolia has been diverted from the Daqin Line to the Shuohuang Line, resulting in a rapid increase in the transportation volume of the Shuohuang Line and a significant decrease in the transportation volume of the Daqin Line.

"The Daqin Line used to operate under overload, but now there is still some capacity," a staff member from Qinhuangdao Port told the Huaxia Times.

In market competition, the shipping role and position of the "Zhunchi Line Shuohuang Line Huanghua Port" have significantly improved, and coal shipping has gradually shifted from the "front coal transportation channel" Daqin Line to the "second coal transportation channel" Shuohuang Line. Affected by this, the coal transportation volume of Qinhuangdao Port, Caofeidian Port, and Guotou Jingtang Port decreased significantly by 55 million tons year-on-year. In the first half of this year, Qinhuangdao Port completed a coal throughput of 75 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.7 million tons. However, the coal transportation volume of Huanghua Port and Tianjin Port has significantly increased, with a significant increase of 28 million in coal transportation volume in the first half of the year.

However, with the arrival of the summer electricity peak, starting from June, the coal consumption peak has arrived, and downstream demand has increased. The enthusiasm of users to pull coal has also correspondingly increased, driving coastal coal transportation to gradually become busy. The coal transportation volume in northern ports may exceed the first half of the year.

"In the past two months, the main coal producing enterprises are bound to increase their sales and shipment quantities, and railway and port transportation will show significant improvement. The coastal coal market will experience a long lost period of supply and demand. However, September and October are the off-season for coal consumption. Although civilian electricity weakens, the economy will continue to stabilize, and coal demand will not decrease significantly. It is expected that the number of coal transported from the north to the south will slightly decrease throughout the year. In the second half of the year, the economy will continue to remain stable, with an increase in civilian electricity, driving the market to improve and coal prices will continue to rise. By the end of the year, it is expected that the transaction price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at ports will exceed 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the year." Cloud representation.